A Colder Pattern

I hope you enjoyed the mild weather last week because a colder (normal to below normal) weather pattern is now unfolding across the eastern half of the United States, one that will likely last for at least the next 10 to 14 days and will coincide with what is climatologically the coldest time of the year. Within this period of fairly extended chill, a few bouts of arctic air are possible and there will be plenty of stormy weather to track as well. The colder and more wintry weather pattern started in earnest with Monday's storm system. While we only saw minor accumulations of snow and sleet here on the Cape, this storm dumped heavy snow over much of New England and helped to drag colder air southward into the Northeast as the jet stream re-organized.

Monday's storm has lifted away from New England, taking its shield of clouds and precipitation with it. However, a lot of upper level energy has been left behind over the Northeast, meaning it will be tough to shake the clouds for the next 24 hours and some periods of light snow showers or flurries may be scattered about the area at times through Tuesday night. In addition to the flurries sparked by the upper level energy, a north-northwest wind could add a touch of ocean effect cloudiness and flurries to parts of the Mid and Outer Cape Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Temperatures will be much more seasonable, with readings holding in the mid and upper 30s on Tuesday and dropping back to the mid 20s Tuesday night.

Any morning clouds and flurries Wednesday will give way to a fair amount of sunshine and this theme of dry but chilly weather will hold through a good portion of Thursday as we see a break in the action. Temperatures will be near normal, with readings topping out in the mid to upper 30s both days. However, do expect a chilly night Wednesday night, as light winds, clear skies and dry air allow readings to tumble back to the upper 10s to lower 20s.

By later Thursday we will see some advancing clouds and this will signal the arrival of our next storm system, progged to cross through the area during the day on Friday. This storm center will again draw enough mild air northward to ensure a mainly rain event as the surface storm tracks over or just west of the Cape. However, some snow or sleet is possible at the onset late Thursday night as precipitation develops around the area in marginally cold air. Another round of gusty winds looks likely with the storm, first from the southeast then from the northwest.

Behind Friday's storm, progressively colder air will bleed into the Northeast behind a series of disturbances over the weekend. One such feature will pass by the region Saturday night, and could track close enough to the Cape to produce some pockets of light snow. We'll have to watch this feature carefully and make sure it doesn't become a bit more "exciting" than it looks right now. More on this later in the week.

One thing seems certain, a pocket of very cold air will arrive later Sunday and into Monday. Several computer models drop our 850 mb (approx. 5000 feet) temperatures to below -17°C, with one model as cold as -23°C. That should translate to surface temperatures stuck in the 10s and 20s.