Two Shots at Some Rain and Wind

Tuesday 1/29 9PM: Be thankful for the jet stream configuration this week, because had a slightly different upper level pattern been in place, we'd be preparing for brutal cold in the coming days (just look at the temperatures over the Northern Plains this week!). But, such is not the case, and instead we are gearing up for a relatively mild stretch of the weather, with a few bouts of wet weather and some wind expected over the next few days.

The first system we'll be dealing with is a cold front that's trailing a strong storm system that cut through the Great Lakes Tuesday and is heading northward into Canada. This system has been feeding on a sharp contrast in air masses - with bitter cold over the Northern Plains and spring-like warmth across parts of the East - and a powerful jet stream. The result was widespread severe weather over the Mississippi, Ohio and Tennessee River Valleys Tuesday and Tuesday evening.

This front will sweep eastward over New England Wednesday, sending a band of showers across the Cape during the midday hours. This narrow band of rain will be weakening and accelerating across the region, meaning only minor precipitation totals on the order of .10" to .15" are expected. The more noticeable aspect to the day will likely be the wind as southerly winds will gust to 35 to 40 mph at times ahead of the front. Behind the front, cold air will rush into the region for a brief 24 hour stint and this quick cool down will be accompanied by some strong west to northwest winds Wednesday night.

After a dry and seasonable Thursday (look for daytime highs around 37°F, +/- 1-2°F), we turn our attention to the next storm system crossing the nation (actually riding up from the Gulf of Mexico). This one, like its predecessor will track west of the region, putting the Cape well into the warm sector of the storm and ensuring liquid precipitation once again. Similarly, a strong low level southerly jet will crank in advance of the storm, on the order of 50 to 60 knots at 5000 feet. So another round of gusty southerly winds is likely - though a strong low level inversion should prevent winds from exceeding 45 mph in gusts. Now, unlike its predecessor, this system's main package of energy will cross close to New England and the accompanying surge of warmth will be substantial when compared to the antecedent air masses for each storm. These two factors combined with a big surge of moisture will mean a better shot at meaningful rain - with .5 to 1" rains possible depending upon the exact storm track. Speaking of which, the track could be favorable for a rumble of thunder if we truly get warm sectored.

The weekend is still looking mainly dry with milder than average temperatures.