A Return to February

Thursday February 7, 2008 12:00 AM

Overall, we are looking at a rather active weather pattern for the next 5 to 7 days. While no monster storm systems are currently on the forecast charts (for now), lots of smaller weather systems are expected - almost one a day in fact - which will mean a good deal of cloudiness in the extended forecast and several opportunities for precipitation. With temperatures returning to more seasonable levels, this should allow for at least some light wintry precipitation around the area at times.

A look at the surface charts this morning across the Northeast reveals a low pressure area east of the Cape (the storm that gave some parts of the Cape some wild weather overnight) with a surface trough extending westward across Southern New England, linked to a second small low center over Upstate New York. Meanwhile, well to the north of New England, an arctic high pressure center is building in to Quebec, bringing some real cold to regions east of Hudson Bay. Temperatures in that part of the world are running between -20°F and -40°F this morning...ouch. Some of this air is trying to ooze southward into New England, but overall much more tolerable temperatures are in place this morning across the Northeast.

With the two small low centers still spinning through the Northeast and surface winds blowing in off the Atlantic, plenty of clouds are locked in across the region and areas of light to moderate precipitation (mainly snow) are continuing over New York State and much of interior New England. Here on the Cape, temperatures this morning are in the mid to upper 30s and damp, cool northeast winds are keeping fog and mist going, but not allowing for much in the way of frozen precipitation. As we head through the morning and into the afternoon, the atmosphere will get a bit cooler, winds will bend around to a more northerly direction and some of the more organized precipitation to our west may shift across the region. The combination of these factors may be enough to spit out some periods of light snow or light snow, sleet and rain at times during the midday and afternoon hours. Not a big deal, just enough to remind us it's February.

Another small weather system, mainly a pocket of upper level energy, will spin through the region tonight and Friday. This weak system will have just enough moisture with it to ensure a continuation of overcast skies and set off some additional pockets of light snow and rain around the region. With temperatures dropping back below freezing tonight, this could allow for some slick spots to develop. Even if we don't see any organized precipitation, residual moisture on area roadways could freeze up in some areas.

We get a break for a time Friday afternoon into Saturday morning, but this break will be short-lived as our next weather system will be moving into the Northeast Saturday afternoon. This small storm center will spread a broken shield of mixed rain and snow across Southern New England Saturday afternoon evening. Surface temperatures will only be marginally cold, and with increasing southerly winds in advance of the system, most of the precip. should be in the form of rain here on the Cape - though some snow is possible at the onset. This could change though so we will watch.

Behind Saturday's small system things may turn a bit more interesting for Sunday. A strong shot of cold air will be diving through the Great Lakes this weekend and into the Northeast Sunday and Monday. (Get ready for colder air) The core of this cold will pass through Minnesota, down through the Chicago-region, across the Northern Ohio Valley and make a b-line for the Mid-Atlantic and Southern New England. This core of arctic chill will be accompanied by a vigorous upper level lobe of energy, spinning eastward with the cold air. What we will watch for is just how and where this energy interacts with the milder ocean waters off the Atlantic Seaboard. It's likely that this energy spawns a fast moving and intensifying surface low pressure as it hits the waters. But where does it happen? The GFS, ECMWF and CMC say the Gulf of Maine - which wouldn't be a big deal for us and would instead mean a more traditional arctic frontal passage and some snow showers or squalls followed by clearing and windy, cold weather Sunday night and Monday. The NAM model takes the energy further south, off the Jersey shore. Such a track could allow for a period of light snow Sunday afternoon and evening. Best bet is too follow the more northern solution for now.

After Monday's cold, more unsettled weather moves in for Tuesday and Wednesday of next week with a shot of snow or snow turning to rain. Highly dependent on just how long the cold air hangs in and therefore where any surface low tries to track.

By-the-way, the overall trend for the next several weeks may be for a more wintry weather pattern as some very cold air could try and set up shop over the eastern half of North America as opposed to the western half, where it has spent most of the winter. If the jet stream does indeed reverse, it would allow this cold to make a more prolonged visit.