A Quieter Weekend, But Still an Active Pattern

Saturday 2/23:

We picked up 2 to 4" of snow Friday, followed by several hours of sleet and rain. Parts of the Upper Cape remained at or below freezing well into the event, producing periods of freezing rain as well. If I were grading that forecast performance I would give myself a "C-" or so. Overall, not as much snow fell as I expected, but at the same time, we didn't pick up .7" of liquid either. The late morning/midday dry slot really hurt the totals. Either way, time to look forward.

Clouds will linger through much of today thanks to some leftover energy crossing through New England and a persistent north to northeast wind. However, satellite images show the back edge of clouds heading south and eastward, and if we are lucky, some late day splashes of sun are possible as drier air moves into the region. Clearing skies tonight will set us up for two nice late February days Sunday and Monday. The core of the cold air from last week has lifted out of the area and we are left with "old" cold, so temperatures should be able to climb well into the 30s Sunday and into the low 40s on Monday.

Tuesday and Wednesday's weather system remains a complex one and should prove to be a challenging event for forecasters as it draws near. Several days ago, computer guidance was insisting on tracking this storm almost in a "U" shape: across the Northern Plains, down through the Ohio Valley and up into the Eastern Great Lakes. This didn't fit the upper level pattern well and not surprisingly, this unusual forecast track has been slowly evolving and is now taking on a more traditional look. What was a track west of Buffalo is now a track across New York City and Southern New England. GFS ensemble tracks are even a bit further south, more in line with the UKMET track. While the air mass ahead of the system won't be overly cold, and much of this looks to be a rain event here on Cape Cod either way the storm goes, the end track will certainly make a sizable difference in temperatures, wind and precip. intensity during the event. It's not out of the realm of possibility that this feature ends up being a strong but fast moving coastal storm, with a period of strong winds and heavy precipitation. A track to our west and north would favor a more showery precip. event and less wind. There will also be a wealth of cold air on the northern and western side of this system, ready to be dragged into the western half of the storm, so a late in the game change to snow would be possible with the more southerly track. Subsequent model runs will help iron this all out, but the trend seems to be south.

Behind the storm, very chilly air will pour into the region on Thursday, before our next system looks to arrive Friday or Saturday in the form of a clipper system. This could bring some snow to the region if the current trends hold.