Storm after Storm...

Tue. 2/26:

Tuesday / Wednesday Storm - the forecast track has slowly but surely shifted south and eastward, taking on a more traditional look. Instead of tracking the system from Cincinnati to Buffalo, as some computer guidance predicted last week, the storm looks to head from near Lexington KY to Philadelphia to Providence. While precipitation type was never really in doubt here on the Cape thanks to the "mild" track, this shift makes a big difference over interior New England, where a heavy snow event is likely tonight - adding to the impressive seasonal snow totals up north. In fact, somebody over VT, NH or ME is going to have a quicky hitting but sizeable winter storm tonight.

As for the Cape, the evolving track won't change much in terms of sensible weather. It does mean a rather short warm-up for the region. The former track would have provided a much deeper and more proncouned southerly flow as compared to the short-lived spike in temperatures we will see tonight. In terms of rainfall, a solid slug of moisture will work into the area this afternoon and last for about 4 to 6 hours, giving us a 1/4 to 1/2 inch of rainfall, with a few quick hitting downpours possible. Strong gusty southerly winds will also develop for a time, before switching to the southwest. There's a lot of strong wind aloft to keep an eye on, but gusts should remain under 45mph.

Cold Air - On Wednesday, colder air will begin to work back into the region. As the storm intensifies to our north, it will tap a chunk of very chilly air in Canada and drag it straight down into the Northeast. Unlike many of our cold shots this winter which have come in from the west, this one will have a more direct delivery into the region, limiting its modification. With that in mind, temperatures will head down towards 20F on Wednesday night and struggle to climb out of the 20s on Thursday. Lows should dip into the 10s across most of the Cape Thursday night. While this isn't record cold by any stretch, it is certainly harder in late February / early March for highs to hold under 30F with full sunshine as compared to early / mid January.

Next Storm - A clipper system will track across the Great Lakes Friday and head through Central New England Friday Night and Saturday. Out ahead of this system, milder air will be drawn northward and a band of snow will break out and race to the east. This should result in increasing Friday clouds and perhaps some snow showers late in the day or more likely, at night. What remains to be seen is A) just how much low level warming results from the south wind ahead of the clipper system and B) if any secondary storm development on Saturday allows precip. to hang on longer. My current thinking is for a mix of wet snow and rain showers Friday night, probably not accumulating more than a coating to an inch. Saturday is a bit more tricky as there are hints of a storm trying to form either east or southeast of Cape Cod Friday night and tracking northward thereafter. Should this development take place to our south, precipitaiton chances would increase for Saturday morning. However, a further north development (currently the more likely outcome given the upper level trough position and depth) would cause most of the precipitation shield to develop to our north.

Looking further down the road, after a quiet Sunday and perhaps Monday, things will turn active once again during the middle part of next week. The stakes will be high by then, as a race will be on between a southern stream low pressure area and very cold air dropping down from Canada.