Where is Spring?

It might be hard to notice given the abundant sunshine, but we have actually settled into a rather winter-like weather pattern. A cold west to northwest flow of air from Canada is funneling chilly air into the Northeast, keeping highs in the low and mid 40s from day-to-day. While these numbers are not terrible, they don't do the air mass justice. This time of year, sometimes we have to look at the dew point to get a better indicator of air mass type - and they have been running anywhere between 5°F and 25°F over the last 48 hours. These low numbers show just how chilly the air can get and helps explain the upper 10s and lower 20s we saw around the Cape for lows early Monday morning - some 10 degrees below normal.

Anyway, as each day passes, and we move further out of winter, but continue to see readings between 40 and 45°F for highs, we move further and further away (in the negative) from normal. While 42F or 43F is welcomed in mid January, it now represents a day that is several degrees below the average for the date (46°F). Unfortunately, looking out into the first few days of April, there doesn't appear to be any big changes in store, as a cooler than average pattern will persist. And while we've lucked out in terms of major storminess so far, and will see a rather quiet first half of the week, the overall look of the pattern in the Northern Hemisphere remains favorable for East Coast storms. And as we get later into the spring, we will have to start watching for cut-off lows which can really make things dismal (nothing on the horizon yet thankfully).

In the meantime, the maps and charts page illustrates the quiet weather starting the week. Any significant storminess has been blocked thanks to surface high pressure over the region and a strong polar vortex spinning well to the north of the Great Lakes/Northeast. Moisture from the Gulf of Mexico has been cut off, meaning any disturbances crossing west to east in the jet stream are lacking meaningful precipitation. One such minor system will push into the region Tuesday night and Wednesday, only bringing clouds and the threat for a few passing flurries or sprinkles or a light rain shower at worst. Between now and then, we can expect fair weather with a continuation of below normal temperatures (and another chilly night Monday night). Tuesday will actually end up cooler than Monday, as winds turn more northeasterly in response to a developing offshore storm and a new surge of chilly air drops into the region. In fact, we might be hard pressed to hit 40°F Tuesday afternoon and I suspect someone walking the beaches of the Outer Cape Tuesday afternoon will feel downright cold thanks to a fresh northeast wind and readings in the upper 30s.

After Wednesday's system (and brief reprieve from chilly air as we should climb into the upper 40s to near 50) pushes east, cooler and drier air will return Thursday as chilly high pressure again builds in to our north and west. This cold air mass over Southern Canada will subsequently set the stage for a potentially unsettled end to the work week as milder air tries to build northward but is shunted out-to-sea south of New England in the form of several small storm centers.

It appears as though two low pressure centers will ride eastward and pass over or south of Southern New England Friday and Saturday. These relatively small weather systems should throw enough moisture into the region to spawn areas of light to moderate precipitation late in the week and during the first half of the weekend. The question is precip-type - as their will be plenty of cool air near or over New England when the systems arrive, meaning some frozen precipitation is a distinct possibility depending upon just where these storm systems track. Should the return of cool air not be as strong as some guidance wants to suggest, the battlezone will establish a bit further north, allowning for a milder solution and more in the way of liquid precipitation. Should cool air become more firmly entrenched, snow or sleet would be a higher likelihood.