Cold Weekend Ahead

FRI 3/28: Yet again it seems we've dodged a winter weather bullet. It's funny, for Cape Codders, this winter/early spring will go down in the books as a rather forgettable one. It was never overly cold, never overly mild and total snowfall was essentially normal thanks to the early December snow and the nor'easter in January. We saw a good deal of rain and some decent windstorms, but there were very few prolonged major weather events. Yet for much of the northern tier of the continental U.S., from the Pacific Northwest to the Northern Plains, Great Lakes and Northeast, this winter was far from forgettable. For many, it will long be remembered thanks to exceptional snowfall and some major winter storms. Many cities have broken all-time records, including most recently, Caribou ME. Take a look at this.

Anyway, what 36 to 48 hours ago was looking like a potentially nasty end to the work week is turning out to be rather uneventful (again) as the heaviest axis of precipitation and deepest cold has remained just to the north of Southern New England. Think back to Wednesday when it was pointed out just how fickle this situation would be based on the exact placement of a surface boundary its associated storm centers. The forecast was never set in stone (is it ever?) as just subtle shifts in this boundary were apt to cause substantial changes to the forecast. In the end, the front was a hair further north than expected, which saved us from any prolonged heavy precipitation or wintry weather. Instead we will just see some scattered showers today with temperatures in the 40s, slowly trending cooler later in the day. Before things taper down tonight, precipitation could end as some sleet or snow - but nothing major. Far from the substantial frozen precipitation computer guidance wanted to throw our way just a few days ago.

Another thing mentioned on Wednesday was that the only thing guaranteed with the late week forecast was a return of very chilly weather for the weekend, and that, thankfully from a forecast standpoint, is one thing that will come to pass.

A small low pressure area will ride eastward from southern PA this morning and pass south of Cape Cod this afternoon and tonight. On the backside of this storm center, very cold air will be drawn southward from north of the Great Lakes and into New England. This cold means business. 850 mb temperatures will crash all the way down to -16C by Saturday evening. That's cold even in the heart of winter. While the strong March sun will help overcome this core of cold air, I imagine with the assistance of gusty north winds that we will struggle to climb through the 30s both Saturday and Sunday. I expect daytime readings will be some 10 to 15 degrees below normal and overnight lows will dip well into the 20s Saturday and Sunday nights.

One interesting aspect to the weekend forecast, outside of the cold, is the potential for any ocean effect clouds and snow flurries or snow showers. Winds will be well aligned in the low and mid levels of the atmosphere out of the north Saturday Night and Sunday and temperatures aloft will certainly be cold enough to support ocean effect development. Negating factors might be the core of the cold coming and going prior to the most favorable wind direction and the water temperatures being close to their climatological low point - limiting the temperature difference some what. Even so, despite the storm center pulling away Friday and drier air moving in, clouds may hang tough around the Cape Saturday through the first part of Sunday and I wouldn't be surprised to see some flurries or light snow showers, especially on the Mid and Outer Cape. The further west one is, the better the chances of seeing some sun and slightly milder temperatures. We are getting to the time of year where Outer Cape Cod sees the coolest daytime readings, especially on sunny days. For example, its possible that Sunday sees P-Town stuck at 36 or 37, Falmouth nears 40F, while some place like Providence ends up near 46 or 47. The fun of living near the ocean.

Looking ahead to next week, two storms appear to be on the horizon, one in the Monday/Tuesday time frame, another in the Thursday/Friday window. Each one looks like a rainmaker, with the potential for two decent rainfall events. The first system will likely be accompanied by some milder air, as southerly winds take hold ahead of the storm and drag some warm air up the Eastern Seaboard. This storm should carry a good slug of moisture into the region Monday or Monday night and will also kick up the winds as a strong southwesterly low level jet cranks in the storm's warm sector - making Tuesday a very windy and mild day.

We get a break Wednesday and Thursday before the next storm arrives late next week.