Turning Damp But Milder

MON 3/31: We managed to get through the weekend without any cloudiness thanks to some very dry cold air in the atmosphere, which squelched any significant cloud development. Unfortunately, although we managed sunshine, we did not manage to avoid the cold. Unofficially, Hyannis only managed 40°F both Saturday and Sunday, but even slightly colder daytime readings were seen in some spots (including CapeCodWeather.Net). And despite climbing to the upper 30s to near 40°F around midday Saturday, Saturday afternoon saw a quick drop in temperatures, with readings falling to the low 30s by dusk with strong gusty north winds kicking up. It was truly winter-like Saturday night as north winds gusting to 30 to 35 mph combined with temperatures around 30°F to make for a very cold night. A little bit less wind made for a better Sunday - but still quite chilly.

Thankfully, this time of year the atmosphere "wants" to be warm and it's the cold that loses its grip to incoming warmth, not the other way around. Such is the case this week as the cold heads out and milder air builds in. In fact, it's milder air that's moving in today (Monday) that will actually cause things to turn cloudy and eventually wet.

A storm system lifting into the Central U.S. will send a warm front up and through New England today and tonight. Out ahead of this front, clouds will increase and showers will develop around the area during the course of Monday afternoon - sadly offsetting what would otherwise be a much milder feeling day. These showers will continue into Monday night, before tapering down as the front lifts north of the region. Speaking of the warm front, you'll know it when the front has passed to our north as temperatures will rise abruptly (mid 40s to low 50s in a few hours) and winds will shift to the southwest and increase to 25 mph sustained with higher gusts. Up to 1/4 inch of rain is possible in this first batch of moisture.

On Tuesday, with the storm and its associated cold front still to our west and the warm front pushing to our north, we will be squarely in the warm sector and can expect a windy and mild, but somewhat unsettled day. Scattered showers will be interspersed with dry spells and perhaps a few glimpses of sun while temperatures soar into the upper 50s (though cooler in spots like Chatham where the airport tends to hold several degrees lower in these situations). Tuesday will actually be an interesting study in weather as there's a small battle between computer guidance and history. The former want to keep clouds and showers going through most of the day, but the latter says expect a drier and less unsettled time of it until until the actual front nears the region. In either case, southerly winds will become quite strong, gusting past 40 mph at times (would be stronger if we managed prolonged sunshine and slightly milder temperatures as winds aloft will be howling at 60 to 70mph). A second line of showers will push into the region Tuesday afternoon and evening ahead of the actual cold front, bringing another more organized band of precipitation, with perhaps a few elements of heavier rain mixed in.

Dry weather will return on Wednesday and Thursday, with sunshine and temperatures in the mid to upper 40s expected (though computer guidance wants to send us into the 48 to 52 range Wednesday and Thursday.) Thursday looks to be the better of the two days as winds will be far less active than what we see on Wednesday - with cold air pouring into the region on Wednesday but ample strong April sunshine expected, the atmosphere will be primed to mixing and should be able to tap some 40 to 50 mph winds from aloft and deliver some very gusty winds during the day.

Our next storm moves in on Friday and looks to carry a pretty sizable chunk of moisture along with it, though it remains to be seen whether this moves into the region in one solid thump Friday and Friday Night or in several smaller waves lasting Friday into Saturday.