Enjoy It

TUE 4/22: High pressure continues to dominate the weather over the Northeast, locking a dry and somewhat mild weather pattern in place. Though we managed a few raindrops (about 1/10th of an inch at Chatham) Thursday night with the offshore storm, we've essentially been rain free for the better part of 10 days now. The last real widespread meaningful rainfall came on the 12th. High pressure won out this weekend and kept an upper level storm center (and plenty of heavy rain) well south of New England. With this high pressure not budging any time soon, generally dry weather should last through the next several days, with the next shot at rain probably holding off until Sunday or Monday of next week.

As for the next few days, look for a fair amount of sunshine with pleasant temperatures. Highs will push through the 50s and into the 60s across most of the Cape Tuesday (sea breezes will either knock readings back or hold some places in the Upper 50s) with even milder temperatures Wednesday and Thursday - when some spots on the Upper Cape will be make a run at 70°F! Not bad at all for April Vacation Week. Be advised however, the dry conditions and low daytime humidity will make for higher than normal fire danger. Brush fires can easily get out of control - especially if winds pick up which they will do a bit Wednesday afternoon.

Later in the week (Friday-Saturday) a storm system will pass to our north and drop down through the Canadian Maritime region, strengthening a bit as it heads to the waters south of Nova Scotia. Behind this system, a chilly high pressure center will build in over eastern Canada. These two features will combine to turn winds to a more onshore direction on Friday, with these winds lasting through Saturday. This will push cooler air into the region to close out the week - with highs on Friday and Saturday closer to normal. After several mild days, it will feel cool by Friday evening.

After a quiet weekend, early next week things could finally turn a bit more interesting. There's indications that the jet stream will shift around and undergoe some substantial amplification over the nation. A sharp ridge will build over the west with an equally strong downstream trough possibly taking shape over the Ohio Valley. This trough should drive some rather cold air down into the nation's heartland and spread it eastward behind a strong cold front. The combination of a good surface low pressure, a nice influx of Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic moisture and a potent cold front should yield a better shot at some widespread rain by Monday or Tuesday of next week. This is particularly well displayed on the European and Canadian models. We'll have to see if this feature can A) battle far enough northward to punch through the persistent dry air over New England and B) ends up cutting off from the main steering currents and lingers along the Eastern Seaboard for several days. Both factors will be critical to just how much precipitation works into the region.