Weekend Trouble?

FRI 5/2: Well some showers have managed to sneak into the area for a few hours Friday morning, amounting to about a 1/10th of an inch (not much) of rain fall for most spots. The wet weather will shift offshore this morning, leaving us with mainly cloudy skies through the day along with some patches of fog (some drier air trying to nose into the region from the east *and the west* may allow from some breaks of sun, but even if they develop, they would tend to be short-lived.) Temperatures will remain rather chilly thanks to the rain-cooled air, onshore flow and lack of sunshine.

The weekend forecast remains a very difficult one. A blocky upper level weather pattern is producing a rather nondescript surface set-up, with slow moving systems and frontal boundaries trying to push into the Northeast. The exact placement of these features will play a critical role in determining how much and how quickly precipitation pushes into the region over the next few days.

At first glance, Saturday easily appears to be the better of the two weekend days as surface high pressure located to our east attempts to deflect advancing moisture and keep things mostly cloudy but mainly precipitation free. However, warmer and more moist air will be lurking to our west through the day, working hard to overcome the retreating high pressure cell. While the majority of this moisture will stay west, we can't entirely rule out precipitation like we were able to last Saturday. The difference between this weekend and last is that surface high pressure to our east will not be forcing itself westward and feeding very dry air onto the Coastal Plain. This raises the chances for at least some light precipitation to occasionally sneak into the region, especially during the second half of the day. Model guidance does offer a low chance of precipitation - so a shower is a possibility around the region during the day on Sunday.

There is a higher likelihood for rain on Sunday as the storm from the Midwest finally advances far enough eastward to allow for more organized showers to develop around the area. However, timing will be critical to just how much of a washout the day becomes. The NAM and GFS models disagree on timing, with most recent model runs from the NAM saying a good portion of Sunday is OK and the GFS saying it's quite wet. With the UKMET and Canadian still arguing for a drier Saturday and a wetter Sunday, the going Cape Cod Weather.Net forecast calling for a more unsettled Sunday than Saturday will stand.

Hopefully this weather system gets pushed out to sea during the day on Monday, allowing for drier air and milder temperatures to move in by Tuesday or Wednesday.