It Gets Better Soon

THU 5/22: This weather pattern is getting old. It's one day on (nice) one day off (ugly). After a fairly nice Wednesday, today will prove to be another off day - as we're seeing some rather ugly weather given the time of year. Clouds, scattered light showers and temperatures struggling to climb through the 50s is more typical of April than the 3rd full week of May. The culprit behind this pattern is the jet stream, which features a big trough and an associated upper level storm center over the eastern part of North America. This pattern has kept the weather *on average* cooler than normal and somewhat unsettled. This is good news for the lawns, gardens and vegetation, as we've totaled between 3.5 and 4" of rain already this month, but bad news for those in search of summer like weather. Hopefully we can shake this soon and get into a more typical late May weather pattern.

Earlier in the week I wrote that there were two main windows for wet weather this week, one Tuesday afternoon and night and the second somewhere in the Thursday / Friday time frame. Tuesday's system proved a bit more robust than expected, producing around 1/2 inch of rain in most spots, instead of the 1/4 to 1/3rd I was looking for. Today's wet weather will prove far less impressive. We are tracking more upper level energy spinning through the region in association with the cold upper level storm center that is now centered right over the Northeast. This energy will produce plenty of clouds and some pockets of light rain showers around much of the Northeast today, including here on Cape Cod. Hopefully between the showers and clouds we can manage some splashes of sunshine, as temperatures will only manage the upper 50s to perhaps 60F.

On Friday, while the upper level storm center will still be centered overhead, things should begin to improve relative to Thursday as we will be between energy centers. We should see more sunshine, milder readings and a lower probability of rain showers - a day similar to Wednesday. Still, with the bubble of cold air aloft, developing cumulus clouds in the afternoon could spark a shower - the highest likelihood of this, however, will once again be off-Cape where daytime heating is maximized.

All week long the pattern change for the upcoming weekend has been well advertised, as the pesky upper level trough shifts offshore and upper level ridging builds eastward into New England. Overall, this forecast remains on track, with only one potential wrinkle. One last energy center is progged to rotate across New England on Saturday on the backside of the departing upper level storm center. This energy could be enough to produce a few more pop-up clouds and afternoon showers around New England Saturday afternoon. Assuming this activity can in fact fire up, a good portion of this should remain off-Cape like previous days, but a slight risk of a shower is there. Computer guidance says a 10 to 20 percent chance.

Looking further into the weekend, Sunday and Monday should feature plenty of sunshine with temperatures climbing through the 60s and probably touching 70F around parts of the Cape. My current thinking is Sunday is the best day, as a gusty southwest wind on Monday could cool things off on parts of the Lower Cape. But still, much better weather than what we've seen this week and much more summer like - just in time for the unofficial start of the season.