A Bit Unsettled Tuesday

TUE 5/27: Just a quick update today - A cold front as of 10AM is slicing through northern New England and central New York State. However, well out ahead of this front, clouds and showers crossed through the region late Monday night and into the first half of Tuesday - depositing about .05 to .10" of rain. Most of this activity is about to push offshore, however, and improving conditions will develop around the region during midday.

Behind this initial batch of clouds and showers, but out ahead of the surface boundary, clearing skies are pushing south and eastward towards Cape Cod. It's this ribbon of clear skies that could spell some trouble across southern New England this afternoon in the form of strong thunderstorms. The presence of mild air, somewhat humid conditions and with the front serving as the forcing mechanism, conditions will be favorable for some lines of showers and thunderstorms to form later today.

This really marks the first afternoon/evening thunderstorm scenario since last fall for much of the region. But will this activity affect Cape Cod? Climatology would tell us "no." With a south to southwest wind blowing in off of Nantucket Sound in the month of May, we will be firmly entrenched in the marine layer, meaning surface temperatures will be hard pressed to climb out of the 60s, even with the developing sunshine. Parameters for thunder will be high over interior New England, but they will be quite low here on the Cape. Typically, under these conditions, storms fire up and march eastward, but fizzle out on their approach to the canal, only giving us a few rumbles of thunder and a fast moving shower. But given the potential strength of these storms over interior southern New England, we will need to be on the look out, as even a fizzling storm could still produce a brief period of gusty winds and a downpour. So check the local radar through the day.