50/50 Weekend.

FRI 6/20: Well the "unsettled" pattern this week has really yielded some fine weather here on the Cape. We've missed out on most of the clouds and showers that have erupted each afternoon across a good portion of the Northeast and instead have seen quite a bit of sunshine and cool, but still pleasant temperatures. And, now that we've made it to the end of the week and the cold pool of air is lifting a bit further north, temperatures are rebounding, leaving us with nice weather to end the work week and begin the weekend.

If you look outside today you can still "see" the cold upper level temperatures through the presence of building cumulus clouds. These clouds will become a bit more prevalent through the day, but should not build tall enough or dense enough to deposit any precipitation this far south and east. Temperatures will top out in the low to mid 70s, with slightly cooler readings right along the south-facing beaches from Chatham west to Woods Hole where the southerly wind coming in off of Nantucket Sound will serve to keep things a few degrees cooler. Either way, that leaves us with a mostly sunny day, perhaps becoming partly sunny at times this afternoon, with near or just under average temperatures.

After a quiet and pleasant night tonight, we can expect another very nice day around the area tomorrow. As the day wears on, warmer air will shift northward, causing 850 mb temperatures to rise from around 8C today to nearly 12C by Saturday afternoon. As such, afternoon highs should be 4 to 6F warmer than today, particularly with a more westerly component to the wind is factored in to the equation. So, in addition to mostly sunny skies highs should top out between 75 and 80F around the area. Dew point readings will creep up a bit over the course of the day, adding a slight touch of mugginess to the air by afternoon, though not terrible by summer standards.

However, this subtle rise in dew point on Saturday will actually be a precursor to a more important push of warmth and moisture that will arrive later Sunday, leading to a period of unsettled weather for the second half of the weekend. After perhaps some partial morning sunshine, skies should become mostly cloudy to overcast during the day Sunday and showers with embedded thunderstorms won't be far behind, likely developing around the area (in a scattered nature at first before becoming more widespread) during the second half of the day.

The culprit behind the wet weather will be a storm system sliding eastward from the Great Lakes / Ohio Valley region, coupled with a nice surge of moisture coming northward up the Eastern Seaboard. The combination of these two weather features will yield a shield of rain and thunder, with some locally heavy downpours, across the area through Sunday night. With clouds, a southerly wind and scattered showers, Sunday looks to be a muggy but cooler day around the area. Certainly not as nice as Saturday. I'm hopeful that most of this activity will push out of the region by Monday morning, though some computer guidance hints at a follow-up round of moisture during the first half of the day.

Regardless of timing on Monday, the overall weather pattern is likely to turn more summery in nature next week and beyond (warmer with lower chances of showers) as the jet stream flattens out and loses the spring-like characteristics its had most of this week. Thankfully, for us here on Cape Cod, the current pattern hasn't been all that bad at all, especially compared to what folks across central and northern NY, and most of VT, NH and ME have seen this week. Places like Saranac Lake NY have been stuck in the 50s most days this week with clouds and occasional showers.