Hurricanes and Cape Cod

Although Cape Cod is not as susceptible to landfalling hurricanes as other parts of the country, such as the Gulf Coast states or the Outer Banks of North Carolina, the region is certainly vulnerable to the fury of tropical storms and hurricanes. In fact, Cape Cod has experienced several powerful storms over the course of the last century, including four landfalling “Major Hurricanes” (Category Three or higher) that devastated the region. Furthermore, though far less dramatic, Cape Cod regularly experiences the fringe effects of tropical systems as they pass out to sea. While systems passing offshore often result in relatively minor impacts, and may even go unnoticed to the casual observer, their frequency helps to illustrate how vulnerable our region really is and underscores the importance of being prepared.

Forecasting seasonal hurricane activity is a difficult science - never mind predicting points of landfall and the possible impacts to New England in a coming season. In any given year, several tropical storms and hurricanes threaten the United States. Some curve harmlessly out-to-sea and away from the east coast of the United States, while others slam ashore bringing with them extensive damage and significant loss of life. Over the last several years, hurricane experts have warned that we are in the midst of a far more active period of tropical activity than we have seen over the previous few decades, reminiscent of the activity seen during the 1940s and 1950s. And while Cape Cod has escaped unscathed to this point, history has shown that deadly storms can and do hit New England, with some of the worst conditions affecting Cape Cod and the surrounding waters.

While many storms have swept by in recent years, including Hurricane Noel last year, Hurricane Edouard in 1996 and Tropical Storm Floyd in 1999, among others, it has been 15 years since we last saw a direct hit. Prior to Hurricane Bob, we have to go back to Hurricane Gloria in 1985 as the next previous system to have directly affected the region. Even so, Cape Codders must remain vigilant and be prepared for a landfalling hurricane each season, as the frequency of these powerful storms can vary greatly. For instance, in 1954, within the span of 11 days, the Cape was hit by two hurricanes – Carol and Edna. Not only did these two systems deliver considerable damage to the region, they left 86 people dead across New England.

As most people know, the last hurricane to make landfall on or near Cape Cod was Hurricane Bob, in August of 1991. Bob roared ashore in Rhode Island as a borderline Category One / Category Two storm. Despite its weakening state, Bob still managed to cause significant damage to a large portion of southern New England. Bob's storm surge exceeded ten feet within Buzzards Bay, and even higher numbers were recorded across parts of Nantucket Sound. Numerous coastal homes were lost and wind gusts in excess of 100mph affected most of the Cape, with reports of wind gusts to 125mph in Truro. Many neighborhoods were without power for upwards of five to seven days and tree damage was very extensive. Like many tropical systems that affect New England, much of the rainfall was confined to interior New England. In fact, I personally recall seeing patches of blue sky during some of the strongest winds of the storm, as the heaviest rain bands and highest and thickest cloud cover was focused to the west of the storm track.

Of course, the most memorable hurricane to strike the region in the last 100 years was the Great 1938 Hurricane. The '38 Hurricane has been the measuring stick to which all other tropical systems to affect New England have been compared since. This system is perhaps most notorious for its incredible forward speed. It is estimated that the '38 Hurricane accelerated northward at the amazing rate of 60mph! The rapid forward speed prevented this strong storm from weakening over the cooler waters surrounding New England, and as a result, the storm came ashore as a Category Three hurricane, producing a wind gust at the Blue Hill Observatory in Milton, MA to 186mph! The highest wind gust ever recorded in southern New England. Coupled with high astronomical tides, the storm surge from the '38 Hurricane produced devastating coastal flooding. All told, over 500 New Englanders lost their lives because of this powerful storm.

Hurricane forecasters are predicting yet another active hurricane season in 2008. NOAA forecasts 12 to 16 named storms, with 6 to 9 becoming hurricanes, of which 2 to 5 could become 'major' hurricanes of Category 3 strength or higher. Dr. Bill Gray, renowned hurricane expert, and his Research Associate Phil Klotzbach, are forecasting 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes. Of course predicting landfall is far more difficult, but even in this arena, Gray's team of researchers estimate that the probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall this season to be 69 percent. (Dr. Gray's Forecast)

Given the likelihood of another active season, it is prudent for Cape Cod residents, visitors, and public safety officials to continue to plan for and anticipate the effects of a landfalling hurricane on Cape Cod. While it is entirely possible that we could escape another season hurricane-free, exercising our emergency plans, stockpiling goods and resources and staying on top of local and national weather forecasts will only help in the event that a storm does hit.

For the latest updates on the hurricane season be sure to visit the website of the National Hurricane Center regularly and check back with Cape Cod Weather.Net.