Maps and Charts
Out To Sea or Up the Coast?
Sunday February 7, 2010 07:07 AM
An undeniable trend in the overall weather pattern has been established in recent weeks - one that features cold, dry, blocking air masses over the Northeast.
The "negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation" has been locked in place most of the winter season - generally keeping temperatures cool to cold and blocking storminess from coming up the coast. The result has been a very snowy winter thus far for the Mid-Atlantic states and a rather chilly but dry pattern here in Southern New England. As we move forward in the coming weeks, no drastic changes in the overall atmospheric set-up are foreseen. Consequently, no major warming trends are expected and any storm system that tries to push into New England will likely be shunted out south of Cape Cod.
The next storm to track will be pushing toward the region Tuesday into Wednesday. A strong piece of energy sliding along in the jet stream will move toward the Mid-Atlantic states spreading a shield of snow eastward across the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes. This energy will spawn a secondary low pressure area near Norfolk, VA, which will then track northeastward into the Western Atlantic, strengthening into a very powerful ocean storm.
Once again, the question for us becomes just how far north can this storm make it before turning right and heading seaward due to the strong blocking pattern. Given this storm has its origins in the northern branch of the jet stream and will have a primary low pressure center further north than this past weekend's storm, odds do favor it coming a bit closer to the area. As such, snow is in the forecast for Wednesday. How much falls and how big an impact the storm has won't become clear for another 24 hours.
Comments