Major Winter Storm In The Making

Maps and Charts

Major Winter Storm In The Making

Monday February 8, 2010 06:07 AM

Another major winter storm is expected to develop off the Mid-Atlantic shores this week and track northeastward, dumping heavy snows to the northwest of it's track.

It is looking more and more likely that this storm will track further north than its predecessor, passing close enough to Southern New England to bring accumulating snowfall to much of Massachusetts, Connecticut and Rhode Island. As the storm tracks south of New England, it is likely to deepen into a powerful storm system, with its barometric pressure dipping down possibly as low as 28.80" - or about 975 mb.

A storm of this magnitude has the potential to produce heavy precipitation and very strong east to northeast winds. Currently odds do favor a plowable snowfall here on Cape Cod with more than six inches a good possibility - though pinning down amounts is difficult at this time as precipitation could mix with or change to rain for a time across parts of the area.

Today's graphic is an experimental weather tool developed by forecasters at NOAA's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center. It shows probabilities of meeting Winter Storm Warning criteria (>6" of snow in 12 hours) with the upcoming storm system. A snowfall forecast map will be issued this evening.

Comments

0 # steve sullivan 2010-02-08 18:31

This has the smell of mostly rain. 9 times out of 10, when we have temps in the 30`s the ocean keeps us in rain mode. No science here, just decades of preparing for big snow and getting big rain.

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0 # CCW - Brian 2010-02-08 18:38

I think it's possible some parts of the Cape could see some mixing, though it depends on the final track of the storm. On the 18Z NAM the 850mb 0*C isotherm seems decently far offshore to keep at least the upper and mid-cape away from any precipitation type issues.

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+1 # steve campbell 2010-02-08 19:07

The rule of thumb for rain-snow is if the wind blows East; rain. If there is a Northerly component; snow is more likely. Still, the 1000-500mb 540 thickness line remains offshore as well.

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0 # CCW - Brian 2010-02-08 19:17

Going by the 18Z GFS, 10m winds start ENE and slide NNE. Wind speeds look impressive too... 40kts at 10m at 0Z Thursday. Hopefully Phil can weigh in a bit later on...

REPLY:
Hey Brian,
I think there may be a bit of mixing for a time Wed. afternoon but based on the latest trends, the "warm" low levels should be overcome quiet rapidly by a combo of crashing heights and intense lifting.

-Phil

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