On The Edge

Sunday February 14, 2010 08:22 AM

After a quiet holiday weekend, attention turns to a quick moving coastal storm expected to pass over Southern New England on Tuesday.

The exact track of this feature will play a big role in just how much rain vs. snow falls across Cape Cod. Computer guidance suggest two possibilities. The first solution brings the storm rather far west, cutting over interior Southern New England. This track would ensure a mainly rain event here on the Cape, with just a short period of snow early Tuesday morning. Another grouping of computer models want to track the storm much further east, taking the storm over or even east of Cape Cod. This track would mean a longer period of morning snow with a shorter window of mixed rain and snow during midday Tuesday and a flip back to snow during the afternoon and evening hours of Tuesday.

Right now, the best solution is to favor a blend of the two model camps. As such, the going forecast calls for morning snow on Tuesday, perhaps accumulating to an inch or two across the area, before a switch to rain during midday. A flip back to snow is possible later in the day.

Today's image is a computer model output from the Canadian Global Model (GEM) - Global Environmental Mesoscale - and shows one of the more offshore solutions. This particular outcome would be a far colder and snowier scenario for Southern New England and consequently illustrates the need to fine tune the forecast over the next few days.