Just a Glancing Shot?

Sunday May 11, 2008 09:35 AM

Monday Update: The well-advertised ocean storm is now cranking east of the Mid-Atlantic, spinning a large shield of clouds, wind and rain north and westward. However, high pressure to our north is feeding dry air southward and forcing the storm on a more easterly trajectory, limiting its ability to spread showers northward into coastal New England. Nearly all computer guidance keeps the region dry today, however, ocean storms are notoriously hard to predict and as such, showers remain in today's forecast.

With an increasing pressure gradient developing in response to the deepening low pressure center, northeast winds will strengthen during the course of Monday with gusts exceeding 30 mph this afternoon and perhaps approaching 40 mph tonight and Tuesday morning. The strongest winds will be located over the Outer Cape. The combination of strong winds and large waves will likely to lead to some beach erosion at the time of high tide.

Sunday Forecast: A strong ocean storm will take shape east of the Mid-Atlantic on Monday and only slowly drift eastward on Tuesday. Last week it appeared as though this system would bring plenty of rain and strong onshore winds. However, as the event has neared, computer guidance has been honing in on a slightly more southern track to the storm. This more southern route would hold most of the wet weather to the south and east of Cape Cod, with just scattered showers and periods of mist and drizzle more common around the area. At the current time, the most likely scenario is for a few showers to rotate westward and onto the Cape Monday night and Tuesday morning, but with precipitation amounts remaining on the light side. What won't be light, however, is the wind. Northeast winds will increase during the day on Monday and continue to blow strongly Monday Night and all day Tuesday. Gusts past 45 mph will be possible, especially along the Outer Cape. - image courtesy NCAR