Weather News & Notes
Punxsutawney Phil Says 6 More Weeks
Punxsutawney Phil has made his prediction for this spring: we'll see six more weeks of winter. But what do the other weather-prognosticating woodchucks say?
| Prediction | Groundhog |
|---|---|
| Early Spring | Staten Island Chuck |
| 6 more weeks of winter | Wiarton Willie |
| 6 more weeks of winter | Punxsutawney Phil |
| 6 more weeks of winter | Spanish Joe |
| Early spring | Dunkirk Dave |
| Early Spring | Buckeye Chuck |
| 6 more weeks of winter | Shubenacadie Sam |
So what will it be? Take your pick. According to the National Climactic Data Center (NCDC), Punxsutawney Phil's ability to predict an early spring is, well, low.
From NCDC:
The table below gives a snapshot by year since 1988 whether [Punxsutawney] Phil saw his shadow or not along with the corresponding monthly national average temperature departures for both February and March. The table shows no predictive skill for the groundhog during the most recent years of this analysis. Since 1993, the U.S. national temperature was above normal for seven of the eleven February's. In March, the U.S. national temperature for 2003 was above the long term mean. Temperatures were near or above average across a large part of the country, the only spot that was cooler than normal was northern New England. The February and March 2003 maps below give a pretty good idea on the distribution of temperatures across the United States. It really isn't a "bright" idea to take a measure such as a groundhog's shadow and use it as a predictive meteorological tool for the entire United States.
February 2003 ranked as the 39th coolest February in the 1895 to present record. The preliminary nationally averaged temperature was 33.3 degrees F (0.7 degrees C) which was 1.2 degrees F (0.7 degrees C) below the long-term mean.
March 2003 ranked as the 34th warmest March in the 1895 to present record. The preliminary nationally averaged temperature was 44.0 degrees F (6.7 degrees C) which was 1.6 degrees F (0.9 degrees C) above the long-term mean.
| Year | Shadow | February Temperature Departure | March Temperature Departure |
| 2003 | Yes | Below | Above |
| 2002 | Yes | Above | Below |
| 2001 | Yes | Slightly Above | Tied Average |
| 2000 | Yes | Above | Above |
| 1999 | No | Above | Above |
| 1998 | Yes | Above | Below |
| 1997 | No | Above | Above |
| 1996 | Yes | Above | Below |
| 1995 | No | Above | Above |
| 1994 | Yes | Below | Above |
| 1993 | Yes | Below | Above |
| 1992 | Yes | Above | Above |
| 1991 | Yes | Above | Above |
| 1990 | No | Above | Above |
| 1989 | Yes | Below | Above |
| 1988 | No | Below | Above |
